DEBI Jones greeted news the Standards Board for England had cleared her of any wrongdoing by saying she always knew she would be “vindicated”.
Well, that has come to pass. But the existence of a “sleaze” probe hanging over her for almost six months was a sign of dangerously high stakes in what Cllr Jones suggests was an organised maneouvre against her – what she terms 'a David and Goliath battle'.
Cllr Jones is of course Conservative PPC for the constituency of Sefton Central, which will come into existence at the next general election. The Tories are eyeing it eagerly as the type of seat they must win if David Cameron is to have any hope of leading a majority Government. The Electoral Calculus website I (somewhat controversially) referred to in a previous posting predicts Cllr Jones will become Debi Jones MP. Yet the Liberal Democrats are also gunning hard under their PPC, Richard Clein – like Cllr Jones a broadcaster by background – and a lively contest can be expected, as in Southport.
Going back to Electoral Calculus, a bit of small print is in order. Its methodology is self-confessedly broad brush. By concentrating solely on the 'swing' suggested by national polls it assumes an automatic -feed into individual constituencies and takes no account of purely local circumstances.
Confidant Tories, worried Lib Dems and the disinterested observer would do well to watch this video. Psephologist Robert Waller thinks John Pugh has built up to the strength of personal mandate previously attained by Ronnie Fearn. Consequently Southport will remain in Lib Dem hands even in the case of a slide in the overall vote of Mr Clegg's party, he says.
Food for thought. Let me know yours.
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