PROGRESS, the New Labour think-tank-cum-ginger-group, gets a fair amount of ridicule thrown its way. A personal favourite political scribbler, Kevin Maguire of the Daily Mirror, labeled its monthly self-titled magazine ‘the Blairite Pravda’ (after the Soviet Communist Party’s official rag, its title meaning ‘Truth’). Yet for all Labour’s current headaches in government, the latest Progress missive proves the ‘people’s party’ can still attract loans of grey matter from some intellectual big-hitters.
Particularly intriguing is this contribution by Peter Kellner, president of polling firm YouGov, once controversial for its web-based surveying methodology. Kellner dissects a range of possible scenarios for the composition of the House of Commons after the next general election. He posits that, contrary to widespread belief, Nick Clegg having a straight choice between anointing either David Cameron or Gordon Brown as PM (his party’s votes given in return for movement on electoral reform and other touchstone demands) is actually the least likely one of the five scenarios. Writing seemingly from a Labour perspective, Kellner suggests exploring a baseline Lib-Lab understanding taking in constitutional reform, civil liberties and a smattering of social and economic changes. Yet the sands have shifted since when Paddy Ashdown and Ming Campbell were prepared to join Blair and co in Government pre-May 1997 - a coalition scotched as it became clear Labour was to achieve a landslide. Operation Iraqi Freedom put a wrecking ball to talk of ending the ‘historical aberration’ that had led to division on Britain’s centre-left. Today, Clegg appears sincere in his displays of dual distaste towards his fellow party leaders. Meanwhile, Cameron writes Guardian comment pieces proclaiming the Tories as the true ‘progressives’. His situation is brighter, suggests Kellner. A spell of Tory minority government would enjoy a ‘honeymoon’ that would allow it to gain an overall majority at a later date – just like Harold Wilson did in October 1974. Realpolitik means overtures to the Lib Dems carry much less appeal for the Conservatives.
In today’s cauldron-like political atmosphere – marked by hand-to-hand fighting over a shrinking political centre-ground – it is easy to forget that spells of minority government littered the 20th century. Both Jim Callaghan and John Major relied on the votes of other parties at various times towards the end of their premierships. You’d never guess it from watching Prime Minister’s Questions, but the winner of the next general election may end up not taking it all.
- Post to:
del.icio.us
Digg
Newsvine
Nowpublic
Reddit
« Previous | Home | Next »